原标题：清醒点，有一种幻觉叫自以为是！
各位小伙伴们咱们好，小帮手又跟咱们碰头啦！最近沉迷于TED的讲演中无法自拔，每次观看完讲演者视频之后，感觉整个人得到了提高，理解一些人生大道理。
你长于挣钱吗？作业才干强吗？心理学研讨标明，咱们并不拿手精确地点评自己。事实上，咱们常常高估自己的才干。
有一种幻觉叫自以为是！
讲演标题：有一种幻觉叫自以为是！
中英文对讲稿
Are you as good at things as you think you are? How good are you at managing money? What about reading people's emotions? How healthy are you compared to other people you know?
你的才干是否与幻想中的相同好？你的理财才干有多强？你的解读情感才干有多好？与熟人比较，你有多健康？
Are you better than average at grammar? Knowing how competent we are and how are skill stack up against other people's is more than a self-esteem boost.
你的文法高于均匀水平吗？了解自己的才干以及比照自己与他人才干，不仅仅能够提高自负。
It helps us figure out when we can forge aheadon our own decisions and instincts and when we need, instead, to seek outadvice.
它协助咱们确认何时能够凭着感觉走，何时需求寻求主张。
But psychological research suggests that we're not very good at evaluating ourselves accurately.
可是心理学研讨标明咱们并不长于精确点评自己。
In fact, we frequently overestimate our own abilities. Researchers have a name for this phenomena, the Dunning-Kruger effect.
事实上，咱们常常高估自己的才干。研讨人员将这种现象命名，称为邓宁-克鲁格效应。
This effect explains why more than 100 studies have shown that people display illusory superiority. We judge ourselves as better than others to a degree that violates the laws of math.
此效应解析了为什么有100多项研讨标明，人们有虚幻的优越性。咱们咱们都以为自己比他人好，这在某种程度上乃至违反了数学规律。
When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance, 32% of the engineers atone company and 42% at the other put themselves in the top 5%.
两个公司的软件工程师被要求进行自我鉴定，两家公司别离有32%和42%的工程师把自己排在前5%。
In another study, 88% of American driversdescribed themselves as having above average driving skills.
在另一项研讨中，88%的美国司机自以为具有高于均匀水平的驾驭技术。
These aren't isolated findings. On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most in disciplines ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and beyond.这些并不是特例。均匀来说，人们倾向于以为自己比大多数人更优异，这体现在健康情况、领导才干 、品德水平缓其他范畴。
What's particularly interesting is that those with the least ability are often the most likely to overrate their skills to the greatest extent.
特别风趣的在于才干越低的人越简单最大程度地高估自己的技术。
People measurably poor at logical reasoning, grammar, financial knowledge, math, emotional intelligence, running medical lab tests, and chess all tend to rate their expertise almost as favorably as actual experts do.
在逻辑推理、文法、金融常识、数学、情商、做医学试验、国际象棋等方面，分数低的人都倾向于以为 自己与实在的专家才干适当。
So who's most vulnerable to this delusion? Sadly, all of us because we all have pockets of incompetence we don't recognize.
那么，终究谁最简单受这种幻觉的影响呢？可悲的是，答案是所有人，由于咱们都有自己认识不到的不拿手范畴。
But why? When psychologists Dunning and Kruger first described the effect in 1999,
但为什么呢？1999年心理学家邓宁和克鲁格初次描绘了这种效应，
they argued that people lacking knowledge and skill in particular areas suffer a double curse.
他们都以为缺少特定范畴常识和技术的人遭受两层窘境。
First, they make mistakes and reach poor decisions. But second, those same knowledge gaps also prevent them from catching their errors.
榜首，他们会犯过错并做出糟糕的决议。第二，这种常识短缺也会阻止他们发现过错。
In other words, poor performers lack the very expertise needed to recognize how badly they're doing.
换句话说， 体现欠安的人缺少所需的专业相关常识，因而无法认识到自己做得多么糟糕。
For example, when the researchers studied participants in a college debate tournament, the bottom 25% of teams in preliminary rounds lost nearly four out of every five matches.
举例来说，对大学争辩赛的参赛者进行的研讨发现，在预赛中排在倒数25%的队员在每五场竞赛中失利了近四场。
But they thought they were winning almost 60%. WIthout a strong grasp of the rules of debate,
但他们却以为自己赢了近60%的竞赛。这些学生们没有厚实把握争辩规矩，
the students simply couldn't recognize when or how often their arguments broke down.因而他们底子分不清自己的论点在何时被推翻或是多少次被推翻。
The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question of ego blinding us to our weaknesses.
邓宁-克鲁格效应并不是说自我认识让咱们看不到本身缺点。
People usually do admit their deficitsonce they canspot them. In one study, students who had initially done badly on a logic quiz and then took a mini course on logic were quitewilling to label their original performances as awful.
人们一旦发现了自己的缺点一般都会供认这样一些问题。在一项研讨中，一些学生起先在逻辑检验中体现欠好，在参加了一些小型逻辑课程后，他们怅然供认本来的体现糟透了。
That may be why people with a moderate amount of experience or expertise often have less confidence in their abilities.
这或许便是为何，具有少许阅历或专业相关常识的人往往对自己的才干决心缺乏。
They know enough to know that there's a lot they don't know. Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware of just how knowledgeable they are.
他们清楚地清楚自己还有很多不了解的工作。与此同时，专家们往往能认识到自己常识多么广博。
But they often make a different mistake: they assume that everyone else is knowledgeable, too.
但他们常常犯另一个过错：那便是，他们假定其他人相同常识广博。
The result is that people, whether they're inept or highly skilled, are often caught in a bubble of inaccurate self-perception.
成果便是，无论是蠢笨仍是技艺精深，人们常常不能精确认知自我。
When they're unskilled, they can't see their own faults. When they're exceptionally competent,
当他们不拿手某事的时分，他们看不到自己的缺点。当他们反常精干的时分，
they don't perceive how unusual their abilities are. So if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those experiencing it,
他们不清楚自己的才干有多不寻常。关于正在阅历邓宁-克鲁格效应却不自知的人来说，
what can you do to find out how good you actually are at various things?
如何能了解自己在各范畴的实在水平呢？
First, ask for feedback from other people, and consider it, even if it's hard to hear.
首要，要寻求他人的反应，即便它并不悦耳，也要细心考虑。
Second, and more important, keep learning. The more knowledgeable we become, the less likely we are to have invisible holes in our competence.
其次，更重要的是不断学习。咱们了解的常识越多，那些躲藏的才干缺点就会越少。
Perhaps it all boils down to that old proverb: When arguing with a fool, first make sure the other person isn't doing the same thing.
或许一切都归结为那句陈旧的谚语：当和傻瓜争辩时，首要要确认对方是否也在做相同的事。
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